Tag Archives: runaway population

Philippine Population & Poverty

WHAT’S IN A NUMBER?
by timothy2011

Several persons on Facebook have been citing the Philippines’ real GDP growth rate as only 1.1% in building their argument for passing an RH bill. The argument is this: with an economic growth rate of GDP = 1.1% being lower that the population growth rate (PGR) of 1.95% (which was the PGR for the period 2005-2010; we are now in the period 2010-2015 wherein the PGR is 1.82%), how can the economy provide for the new Filipinos born every year? These figures have then been used to speculate about 40 years into the future, creating quite a doomsday scenario. This argument has two fundamentally flawed assumptions which completely disregard the facts.

Real GDP Growth Rate
Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (Central Bank of the Philippines)

Year : Rate (Percent)

1999 : 3.4
2000 : 6.0
1999 : 3.4
2000 : 6.0
2001 : 1.8
2002 : 4.4
2003 : 4.9
2004 : 6.4
2005 : 5.0
2006 : 5.3
2007 : 7.1
2008 : 3.7
2009 : 1.1
2010 : 7.3

Population Growth Rates
(Source: Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board)

Period : Rate (Percent)

2005-2010 : 1.95
2010-2015 : 1.82
2015-2020 : 1.64
2020-2025 : 1.46
2025-2030 : 1.27
2030-2035 : 1.09
2035-2040 : 0.92

Flawed Assumption Number 1: Real GDP growth is constant for every year.

A look at the GDP figures above, published by the Central Bank of the Philippines, show that the 1.1% statistic describes real GDP growth only for 2009. Why is this so? It is because the growth percentages for each year reflect growth in the economy over the previous year only.

Flawed Assumption Number 2: The population growth rate is constant for every year.

A look at the PGR figures above, published by the Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board, show that PGR does not remain the same between two five-year blocks of time, much more so over a period of 40 years.

What are the facts?

Fact 1: GDP figures tend to change from year-to-year. GDP goes up and down and does not remain static. Thus, it is grossly inappropriate to use the 2009 figure of 1.1% to characterize the subsequent 40 years of real GDP growth in the Philippine economy.

Fact 2: The PGR figures above show that the population growth rate of the Philippines not only changes but that it is on a declining trend over the 40-year period 2000 to 2040.

Fact 3: The preceding information shows how easy it is to manipulate information in an attempt to sell erroneous ideas.

Fact 4: Filipinos cannot be fooled by untruthful dog-and-pony misuses of statistics.

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1903-2007: Census actual
2010-2040: NSCB estimates
r = .96

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Philippine Population Growth and Poverty Incidence. The graph says it all.


Philippine Total Fertility & Poverty of Individuals: 1960-2009.

Between 1960-2009, despite a decrease in total fertility, there was an increase in the total number of poor Filipino people. Why do the Rh bill supporters claim that reducing total fertility will reduce the number of poor people in the Philippines?

Runaway population growth? The numbers say otherwise.

PHILIPPINE POPULATION TRENDS: POPULATION GROWTH AND TOTAL FERTILITY ARE DROPPING

Do not be deceived by alarmist claims that “too many babies are being born too soon” or that the Philippines has “runaway population growth.” These claims simply are not borne-out by the numbers.

The Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) published the following estimates of Population Growth (PGR) and Total Fertility (TFR) Rates on their website, which clearly project trends that are dropping. In plain language, the PGR and TFR of the Philippines are not running away but are slowing down.

Population Growth Rates

Period : Rate

2000-2005 : 2.05
2005-2010 : 1.95
2010-2015 : 1.82
2015-2020 : 1.64
2020-2025 : 1.46
2025-2030 : 1.27
2030-2035 : 1.09
2035-2040 : 0.92

Total Fertility Rates

Period : Rate

2000-2005 : 3.41
2005-2010 : 3.18
2010-2015 : 2.96
2015-2020 : 2.76
2020-2025 : 2.57
2025-2030 : 2.39
2030-2035 : 2.23
2035-2040 : 2.07

source: http://www.nscb.gov.ph/secstat/d_popnProj.asp